- Republicans hold 218 of the 435 House seats going into the 3 November 2026 midterms; Democrats hold 214, with one independent and two vacancies.
- Since 1946 the president's party has lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterms. The only gains were in 1998 (+4) and 2002 (+8).
- The average midterm loss for the president's party is 26 seats; the median is 22.
- On the 2024 result (220 Republicans, 215 Democrats), Democrats need a net gain of three seats for a majority.
All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election on Tuesday 3 November 2026. Republicans go in with a narrow majority, and history is not on their side: since the Second World War, the president's party has lost House seats in almost every midterm. This post shows the House as it stands on the eve of the vote, every midterm swing since 1946, and what an average swing would do to the 2024 result.
The House on the eve of the vote
On 2 November 2026 Republicans hold 218 seats and Democrats 214. One member sits as an independent, and two seats are vacant. A majority of the full House is 218, so Republicans have no room to spare.
The president's party nearly always loses seats
There have been 20 midterm elections since 1946. The president's party lost House seats in 18 of them. The only gains were small: 4 seats for Democrats under Bill Clinton in 1998, and 8 for Republicans under George W. Bush in 2002, a year after 9/11. The biggest losses were 63 seats for Democrats in 2010 and 56 in 1946. Donald Trump's Republicans lost 41 in his first midterm, in 2018.
The average loss over those 20 midterms is 26 seats, and the median is 22. In 2024 Republicans won 220 seats and Democrats 215, so Democrats need a net gain of three seats on that result to reach 218.
What an average midterm would look like
Take the 2024 result and move 26 seats from Republicans to Democrats, the average midterm swing since 1946, and the House flips to 241 Democrats and 194 Republicans. That's an illustration, not a forecast: individual races, retirements and turnout decide the real result.
New maps in several states
Texas, California, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio are among the states that redrew their congressional maps in 2025 and 2026, so some districts are not the same as in 2024. Texas's new map was drawn to favour Republicans and California's Proposition 50 to favour Democrats. Estimates of the net effect vary, and the new lines make this year's swing harder to compare with past midterms.
After the vote
We'll chart the result as the races are called. Many House races take days to count, and some in California and other states that count mail ballots late take weeks. To chart it yourself, open the US House seat chart, type in the seats each party has won, and add a grey row for races not yet called. It animates the seats filling in, and exports as a PNG, MP4 or GIF for social media.
Sources and method
- Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives: party breakdown
- The American Presidency Project: seats in Congress gained/lost by the president's party in midterm elections
- Ballotpedia: Redistricting ahead of the 2026 elections
House party breakdown from the Office of the Clerk on 2 November 2026. Midterm seat changes are the change in House seats held by the president's party, as published by The American Presidency Project. The average-swing chart subtracts the mean midterm change (25.65 seats, rounded to 26) from the 2024 Republican total and adds it to the Democratic total; it's an illustration, not a forecast.